The Indian market trading at near-record highs is likely to pick up momentum, as anecdotal evidence of the past 11 years suggests that December belongs to the bulls.
The Sensex and the Nifty hit a record high of 41,163 and 12,158, respectively, on November 28, and are less than a percent away from breaking into a new territory.
Data suggest that the Sensex closed in the green in the month of December in seven of these 11 years.
The Sensex saw its worst fall in 2011 when it fell by over 6 percent, followed by 2014 when it declined 3.7 percent, and in 2018, the index fell by 0.48 percent.
The index rose in seven of the last 11 years. It rose over 9 percent in 2008, followed by a 3.7 percent rally in 2017 and 3.3 percent gain in 2010, data from AceEquity shows.
With the Reserve Bank of India policy out of the way, all eyes will now be on the trade negotiations between the US and China. Hence record highs are possible, which could be followed by some consolidation, experts say.
“The markets made a new record high last month but the bias was largely on the consolidation side. This month, too, weak macroeconomic data combined with not so encouraging global cues have triggered marginal profit-taking of late and indications are pointing towards further consolidation in the index,” Ajit
The outcome of RBI monetary policy may result in a further up move but upside seems capped, considering hurdle at 12,300 in the Nifty. Besides, signals are mixed from the global front. In such a scenario, it is likely that markets may conclude the month marginally higher.”